MODESTO - One need look no further than Modesto to gauge the flow of this year's race for governor.
Home to E&J Gallo wines and the setting for the film classic "American Graffiti," this city of 208,000 is the fourth-largest in the San Joaquin Valley behind Fresno, Stockton and Bakersfield. But it is more than that.
Shifting party loyalties and a flood of Bay Area migrants has made the area bordering the coastal range between Stockton and Los Banos one of California's most politically unstable regions. The area's population has swelled since the last regular governor's race in 2002, and both political parties are vying for dominance. Modesto is now split evenly between Democrats and Republicans.
Political experts and local activists say that if state Treasurer Phil Angelides wants to unseat Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in November, he must be competitive in places such as Modesto. And to be competitive, he must be there.
But by all accounts, Angelides is not faring well so far.
It is a story repeated across the San Joaquin Valley, where a recent survey by the Public Policy Institute of California showed Schwarzenegger leading Angelides by 30 percentage points. The last three statewide polls show Angelides trailing the governor by at least 10 points.
With six weeks left in the campaign, Angelides has yet to seriously reach out to voters beyond the traditional Democratic citadels of Los Angeles and the Bay Area. And the northern San Joaquin Valley could prove critical on Election Day.
"Not only are the numbers changing, but they are not as predictable," said Modesto attorney Duane Nelson, a prominent local Democrat. "These could be the voters who decide this election."
Right now, they are with Schwarzenegger, but the governor's hold on the region is not yet set.
Angelides has his work cut out for him. Most of the Valley's Democratic leadership supported Angelides' rival, state Controller Steve Westly, in what became a nasty primary election last spring. Of the Valley's eight counties, Angelides carried only San Joaquin.
His last visit to the Valley was in July, when he toured Stockton, Modesto, Fresno and Merced. But local Democrats say one trip is not enough.
"It would be helpful to see more of Phil," Stanislaus County Democratic chief Donna Patterson said. "I think Phil has a chance to pull it out, but we have a lot of work to do. I'm just disappointed, because I don't feel Phil's campaign is paying a lot of attention to the Valley."
Angelides will likely carry Democrat-heavy Stockton on Election Day - just as he's certain to lose the Republican stronghold of Bakersfield. But while Modesto isn't a guarantee, it is a winnable city for a Democrat. So is Fresno.
The Angelides campaign says it is indeed contesting the Valley, and the treasurer is slated to return here in the next few weeks.
But he'll need help.
In 1998, then-Rep. Gary Condit almost single-handedly swung the region to Gray Davis in that year's governor's race.
Condit's successor, Rep. Dennis Cardoza of Merced, says that while he's endorsed Angelides, the treasurer has not asked him to help with a similar campaign swing through Cardoza's 18th District, which includes Stockton and Lathrop.
Former Stanislaus County Democratic chief Sandra Lucas says such relationships are critical to winning this fast-growing region.
"People in this Valley want to touch their candidate, they want to feel they have a relationship with the candidate," Lucas said. "That's just not happening."
Denair resident Shannon Rose says she's barely heard about the race.
"I'm actually looking for a lot of information on the election now," said Rose, a student at Modesto Junior College. "I'm a little undecided on it. I don't love what Schwarzenegger has done, but I don't know how much of it you can blame on him. And with Angelides, all you hear about him is negative."
Rose represents the region: She is leaning toward Schwarzenegger but is not yet convinced.
Patterson and her Republican counterpart, Stanislaus County Supervisor Jim DeMartini, say getting the word out to voters such as Rose will be tougher this year.
November will mark California's eighth election since 2002, and both party chiefs say their volunteers are tired.
"There doesn't seem to be nearly the enthusiasm now as there was four years ago," DeMartini said.
And it is not because Republicans are worried about Schwarzenegger, he said. "No, it's because we as Republicans think Schwarzenegger is so far ahead he's going to sweep Angelides out with the trash."
Patterson says their late start has been frustrating, but she says it is better late than never.
"We had high hopes for 2006, and we haven't given up on those hopes yet," she said.
